biedexmarkets.com — in rally mode in recent weeks on bets that geopolitical tensions will potentially disrupt global supplies, but if this threat fails to matarialize, the bears will likely emerge from hiding in the second half of the year, Macquarie said in a note.
“[W]e expect oil to turn bearish as the year, progresses due to NOPEC supply growth, a material amount of OPEC+ spare capacity reentering the market, and the potential that continuing inflation softens demand,” Macquarie said in a note.
The threat of supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions is enough in the near-term, however, to support oil prices, but “without an actual supply disruption associated with geopolitical events, will struggle top hold above $90 a barrel in the second half of the year,” Macquarie added.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to simmer, with Iran starting to garner more attention amid fears that imminent retaliatory on Israel is imminent. Talks on a truce to temporarily halt the Israel-Gaza war, meanwhile, suffered a flow following an Israeli missile that killed three sons of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh.
Beyond the Middle East, Ukraine attacks on refineries in Russia have also been underpinning oil prices.
Still, rising non-OPEC supplies have kept worries about a supply surplus front and center, with the U.S. leading the charge.
U.S. oil production is expected to grow by 260,000 barrels per day this year, to a record 13.19 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated in a recent report.