Gold is enjoying a remarkable start to the year. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
Yet, beyond the likely solidification of Fed cut expectations in the coming weeks and months, it is the structural channels of physical demand for Gold that excites us most, which we view will unlock more than just systematic momentum.
Looking ahead, the potential upside in Gold prices will be closely tied to US real rates and US Dollar moves, as well as persistent strong consumer demand from China and India, alongside central bank purchasers. We view this will offset downward pressures from upside growth surprises and rate cut repricing, and anticipate that any sell-offs to be limited in scale due to a dovish Fed, slowing wage growth, and resilient central bank demand.
Tactically, we would view a sell-off in Gold as a buying opportunity, as we see an environment with elevated risk channels ahead playing into Gold’s hedge qualities.