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USD/CHF forecast ahead of Swiss retail sales, GDP, and CPI data

The USD/CHF price is in a tight range ahead of the upcoming Switzerland GDP and consumer price index (CPI) data scheduled for Thursday. The pair is trading at 0.9153, where it has been in the past few days.

Switzerland inflation and GDP data

The Swiss economy is doing modestly well as internal and external demand rise and as the country intensifies its vaccination process. 


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The Swiss statistics agency will publish the latest GDP numbers on Thursday morning. Economists expect these numbers to show that the country’s economy rose by 2.0% on a quarter-over-quarter basis in Q2. This will be a remarkable recovery pace after the economy contracted by 0.1% in the first quarter.

As a result, this recovery is expected to rebound by about 9% on a year-on-year basis. This will be the fastest recovery pace since last year as the country emerged from the initial lockdown. 

The USD/CHF pair will also react to the latest Swiss inflation data. Economists expect these numbers to show that the headline CPI increased from -0.1% in July to 0.1% in August. This will translate to an annualized growth of about 0.8%, which is slightly below the SNB target of 2.0%.

The other key data to watch will be the Swiss retail sales numbers for July. Like inflation, the data is expected to show a strong recovery as residents spent more money. 

Still, regardless of how the numbers come out, analysts don’t expect a change in policy by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) any time soon. Besides, the bank has maintained negative interest rates in the past few years. It has also argued that the Swiss franc is significantly overvalued. 

At the same time, there are risks about the rising number of Covid cases in the country even as the vaccination process accelerates. The USD/CHF will also react to America’s export and import data and the latest employment numbers.

USD/CHF forecast

USD/CHF

The four-hour chart shows that the USD/CHF price has been in a tight range recently. It has remained between the narrow channel whose support and resistance levels are at 0.9100 and 0.9206, respectively. It is also along the 25-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA) while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral level. Therefore, the pair will likely remain in this range after the latest Swiss economic data. 

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