- The US Dollar undergoes some profit taking ahead of a very light day in the economic calendar.
- Markets embrace Fed Chairman Powell hawkish remarks and change of stance.
- The US Dollar Index trades deep into the 106.00 area though, whitstanding a small pullback could be at hand.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) eases on Wednesday as it becomes increasingly clear that markets won the arm wrestling match with the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The recent upward moves in both US bond yields and the US Dollar were enough to twist the arm of US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell said on Tuesday that recent data shows a lack of further progress in taming inflation, and that it will take longer before having enough confidence that price growth is coming down to target before considering the first rate cut.
On the economic data front, no market-moving data is expected besides some second-tier numbers. More importantly, Fed speakers will take the stage right at the end of the US session, with Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester and Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman to speak.
- The weekly Mortgage Bankers Applications have be released for the week of April 12. Last week the index printed 0.1% with this week at 3.3% despite elevated rate levels.
- The US Treasury is holding a longer-term bond auction at 17:00 GMT for a 20-year bond.
- The Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 18:00 GMT.
- At 20:00 GMT, the Treasury International Capital (TIC) Flows will be released for February:
- Net Long-Term TIC Flows expected to head from $36.1 billion to $40.2 billion.
- Total Net TIC Flows were in January at $-8.8 billion with no forecast available for February.
- Two scheduled Fed speakers are scheduled for Wednesday:
- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, around 21:30 GMT, participating in the South Franklin Circle Dialogues.
- Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman is due to speak around 23:15 GMT at the Institute for International Finance in Washington D.C.
- European and US equities are snapping the red numbers for this week and are mildly in the green with the Eurostoxx 50 as biggest winner, up 0.70% for this Wednesday.
- According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, expectations for a Fed pause in the May meeting are at 94.6%, while chances of a rate cut stand at 5.4%. It looks like markets are easing off their most hawkish outlook.
- The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.65%. The benchmark is retreating from the highs at 4.69% seen on Tuesday.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) eases a touch on Wednesday. With Fed Chairman Powell confirming that it will take longer than expected to start lowering interest rates, some unwinding of the rally that took place in the DXY since last week’s Consumer Price Index numbers is likely. Expect a bit of a pullback, although the substantial wider rate differential between higher US rates and the rest of the world should keep the DXY at higher levels above 104.00.
On the upside, the fresh high of Tuesday at 106.52 is the level to beat first. Further up and above the 107.00 round level, the DXY Index could meet resistance at 107.35, the October 3 high.
On the downside, the first important level is 105.88, a pivotal level since March 2023, which proved its importance on Monday by holding as a support. Further down, 105.12 and 104.60 should also act as a support ahead of the region with both the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 104.17 and 103.91, respectively.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
