FOMC January minutes showed no hurry to cut rates. Economists at ING analyze the US Dollar (USD) outlook after the event.
In a quiet week for the US events calendar, Wednesday’s release of the January FOMC meeting minutes served as a reminder that the Fed is in no rush to cut rates. That was not much of a surprise to markets which continue to price around 90 bps of Fed easing this year.
The Fed needs to be sure that inflationary risks have been extinguished before cutting rates back to some kind of neutral level – probably near 3%.
Our game plan here sees the Dollar staying bid for the next couple of weeks – we should get a strong January core PCE release on February 29th – and then turning lower in March on what should be a softer payrolls report and a softer February CPI figure. In early March, we could also hear of some fresh China stimulus which would be a boon to the Rest of the World currencies.