As the market pushed out US rate cut expectations, Gold (XAU/USD) fell 2% YTD, from a high of $2,135 in December 2023. Economists at ANZ Bank analyze the yellow metal’s outlook.
Tactical investors have curtailed their net-long positions by 276t, while strategic global ETF outflows were around 82t YTD. Strong equity market sentiment may have also temporarily weighed on Gold’s relative appeal. However, we believe these developments reflect a consolidation instead of a downtrend. While a strong driver for Gold demand may be temporarily at large, this is unlikely to last.
This year’s elections and rate cuts (whenever they happen) will eventually boost Gold’s appeal among investors, bolstering the tailwind from structurally higher central bank purchases.
We forecast Gold price at $2,200 by the end of 2024.
