The single European currency remains locked in a tight trading range between the 1,06 and 1,07 levels for a fourth straight day as investors shy away from taking big bets.
The Middle East front remains without further escalation for now but the risk that this temporary calm will not last long remains in play.
Yesterday gave no surprises, President Lagarde’s rhetoric did not change, with a result the trading range fluctuated just 20 points above and below the 1,0650 level.
Today’s agenda is exceptionally richer with major macroeconomic news, in which indicators for manufacturing and services sectors in Eurozone and United States stand out.
Αt the moment, the clearly better position of US economy compared to the European one remains on the table and possible different messages are expected to affect strongly the exchange rate.
Without any major surprises investors are expected to remain cautious, but as the key catalyst the interest rate differential in favor of the US dollar still on the table the risk of the European currency losing further ground remains elevated.
I see no major reasons to change my view to buy the European currency on a sharp dip near the 1,05 levels as I believe the reactionary behaviors will remain in play.
