I’ve been pointing out risk in Tesla TESLA (here and here and here).
TSLA’s going to $99 per month for FSD from $199. It means to me they are not satisfied with the sell-through rate. They just gave a free trial, then right after offer a cheaper price? It means to me people are not buying it.
Discounts at TSLA have, for me, predicted weak demand. When Musk is very bullish he talks about higher prices of FSD. When he sees weak results in deliveries, it was predicted by lower prices.
We’ll see on earnings how it all shakes out but for now I don’t think deliveries OR FSD sales are going well.
And the recent moniker change of FSD from ‘Beta’ to now ‘Supervised’ I thought initially could have been a sign of passing FSD performance thresholds. But now I think there’s a shot it may have been a legal move in reaction to the recent legal settlement.
TSLA likely settled because even though the driver was negligent the plaintiffs used a different argument that TSLA led consumers to believe it can be trusted as the name autopilot would convey.
Around the time of that case, just before the settlement, Tesla changed the moniker from Beta to Supervised. It is possible that the change from the term Beta was NOT because they passed a threshold of FSD performance. It’s possible that their legal team decided that ‘supervised’ would help them avoid future liability. It‘s possible. It’s my conjecture, but that’s how I read the tealeaves.
As I said in my last post, I also have no axe to grind. I was a big bull until the Tesla peak in November 2021. I am also looking for specific data points that can turn me from bearish to bullish. If you’d like to know what can turn me back to bullish, join us with a free trial by clicking here.
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