Recall EUR/USD over last week’s to vital break at 1.0901. The break to 1.0901 traded 1.0899 highs February 2 then reversed lower. The number 1.0901 hasn’t changed in the past 2 and 3 weeks.
Recall from the weekly, EUR/USD overbought at any price above 1.0853. EUR/USD traded yesterday 1.0866 and today’s lows at 1.0840. The same held for GBP/USD as 1.2701 overbought and traded yesterday at 1.2705 vs 35 pips lower today at 1.2670.
We then hit the worst trades possible as the day trade.
Upside EUR/USD today: 1.0852, 1.0859, 1.0866, 1.0873, 1.0880, 1.0887, 1.0894, 1.0901. Not only is 1.0901 factored into today’s price but EUR/USD informs 1.0852 Vs 1.0901 is perfectly balanced. Perfectly balanced says we have longs and shorts to trade.
EUR/USD downside today: 1.0791, 1.0798, 1.0804, 1.0818, 1.0838. Today’s EUR/USD downside reveals an off balance price by trading oversold. The EUR/USD price today travels from balance on the upside to oversold on the bottom. Long at bottoms is the only trade and 1.0812 is the vital number to watch.
First of the month and the Japanese are out jawboning USD/JPY. The odds to raise for all 2024 factors as 3%, 6% for April, 8% for June, 12% for July and 16% for September. The long end dropped 2% since the Inflation release and the topside rose 1%.
The reverse side to OIS and Swap rates factors to not raise as 99.96%, 99.93%, 99.91%, 99.87%, 99.83%.
As economic news releases are reported, the OIS, Swap rates and Percentages change up or down depending on the positive and negative to the release. What changes are interest rates as OIS and Swap rates and money supplies. However the changes are so tiny, its almost not worth reporting.
Last year amidst YCC changes and interest rates at 99.00 highs, BOJ interest rate changes ran from 2% to 4%. And Inflation ran 3%.
The market and billions of Yen traded in BOJ interest rates reveals the Japanese words are not worth the effort to listen. Trade data is due next week and this is the source to Japanese verbiage.
The Japanese market reveals the exact same situation as all central banks: money supplies and interest rares aren’t going anywhere except for the normal daily trades.
The FED Watch tool says 97% against a cut to rates and the same exact numbers for the BOJ. Search all the central banks and the exact same is revealed for every central bank. Central banks lost independence and rely on the FED for any interest rate moves. No central bank will move until the FED changes.
Why should the BOJ raise when all central banks are focused on drops. The BOJ is exactly the same as all central banks to follow the FED.
As reported for the BOJ is the exact same analysis for every central bank on the planet. Only 2 indicators exist as vital to traders: interest rates and money supplies because of the commonality to every central bank. The remainder is irrelevant as well as the daily market gossip that serves as market pablum.
By trading today’s EUR/USD, traders became interest rate traders to inform levels of exchange rates contain a direct focus to economics. Levels of exchange rates informs to exact levels to economic releases, interest rate changes. The compression to averages over past weeks says interest rates compressed.