Economists at Danske Bank expect relative rates to be positive for EUR/NOK in the coming quarters.
NOK has been off to a poor start this year and we expect this to continue in the months ahead.
We regard relative rates to be a positive for EUR/NOK in 2024 and given our call for below-trend-growth globally and that markets should price in tighter global monetary conditions that rarely pose an environment in which EUR/NOK declines.
In the near term, we will closely monitor developments in global manufacturing but in the absence of a sharp growth acceleration combined with further global disinflation we still think the balance of risk favours a higher EUR/NOK in the coming 3-12M.
We think NOK is fundamentally undervalued but we do not see the trigger for a sustainable turnaround in the next 12M.