biedexmarkets.com — Now is the time to lean into commodities, particularly energy, to hedge the risk that a faster pace inflation may return, driven by economic growth that is running above trend, JPMorgan said.
“Stay overweight commodities as protection to inflation risks: We are not out of the woods yet on inflation,” analysts at JPMorgan said in a recent note.
has been the standout performer in the commodity playground recently, but JPMorgan throws shade on the yellow metal, saying its recent melt-up leaves it vulnerable to a correction.
Energy is favored as there is a “high chance that oil prices surpass $100 over the coming months,” the analysts said.
“Within commodities we believe energy is better hedge than gold,” they added, adding adding that a mean reversion looks high at the moment [for gold].”
The slowdown in the pace of inflation has been driven by a slowing in the prices of goods as the pandemic-era supply chain bottlenecks that pushed goods prices higher eased.
But the risk that a faster pace of inflation could return and cause fresh headaches for central bankers and markets is growing, JPMorgan says, pointing to several signs including rising oil prices, shipping disruptions and strong demand.
Services inflation, meanwhile, remains stuck at “stubbornly high levels”, JPMorgan adds, just as the global economy continues to surprise to the upside, partly helped by China’s efforts to reboot its economy.
“We have revised up 1H24 global GDP growth by 0.5%-pt since the start of the year and risks are still skewed to the upside,” the analysts said.
But the risk of higher for longer inflation will likely keep interest rates higher for longer, potentially undoing the easing financial conditions and cooling the upside economic growth.
“A key unknown is how much this would reverse the easy financial conditions that have helped support growth,” JPMorgan said.
