- Gold price drops from daily highs as better global risk sentiment diminishes safe-haven demand.
- A dip in US Treasury yields places additional pressure on the US Dollar amidst hawkish Fed remarks.
- Easing Middle East tensions sway Gold market, forthcoming US sanctions on Iran could influence future precious metal prices.
Gold prices retreated from close to weekly highs during the North American session on Wednesday amid an improvement in risk appetite. The bullish impulse arrived despite hawkish commentary by US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. US Treasury bond yields dropped and undermined the Greenback, capping Gold’s plunge.
XAU/USD trades at $2,375, down 0.34%, after hitting a daily high of $2,395, just shy of surpassing $2,400. Tensions in the Middle East had subsided after Israeli officials commented that they considered striking Iran on Monday but decided to wait, according to Axios. In the meantime, the US will impose new sanctions on Iran in the upcoming days, said Jake Sullivan, the White House National Security Advisor.
Back to economic themes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the US economy has performed quite strongly while acknowledging that recent data shows the lack of further progress on inflation.
- Powell added, “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” that inflation is on the path to 2%. He said, “Given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it is appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and let the data and the evolving outlook guide us.”
- Recent US economic data indicates a robust economy, highlighted by February’s Retail Sales, which outperformed expectations, and steady Industrial Production figures. These positive indicators have helped to mitigate concerns raised by weaker-than-anticipated housing data released on Wednesday.
- In the meantime, the CME FedWatch Tool shows the first rate cut could happen in September, with odds for a quarter percentage point cut standing at 71%.
- Despite decent US economic data, market participants seem to be focused on geopolitical risks. Sources cited by The Jerusalem Post revealed that Israel has reportedly finalized plans for a counter strike against Iran.
- US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six other currencies, loses 0.15% to 105.96.
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates for Q1 2024 show that the US economy is expected to grow 2.9%, up from 2.8% estimated on April 15, according to the Atlanta GDPNow model.
Gold’s daily chart depicts the yellow metal as upwardly biased despite retreating toward the $2,370 region. The formation of a Doji on Tuesday suggests that buyers lack the momentum to extend the precious metal’s gains, opening the door for a pullback.
In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI has fallen below the 80 level and hasn’t looked back, as it is nearly crossing below the 70 level, suggesting that buying pressure is fading.
That said, XAU/USD is headed for a correction. The first support would be the $2,350 mark, followed by the April 15 daily low of $2,324. Once surpassed, Gold might test $2,300.
On the other hand, if buyers drag prices toward $2,400, a test of the all-time high of $2,431 is on the cards.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
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