The currency market problem this week was DXY to remain trading in deep overbought territory and to trade a tiny 66 pip range from 104.60 to 103.94. DXY highs sent GBP/USD and EUR/USD to depths of massive oversold. USD/JPY began the week overbought and remains overbought at 148.00’s.
The positive to DXY shorts is current 104.00’s bumps against EUR/USD at upper 105.00’s. The last DXY vs EUR/USD crossover occurred in 2002 / 2003. Markets contain a minimal chance for another crossover and DXY to trade 106.00’s and 107.00’s.
The question to a possible crossover involves lower Inflation and lower Oil. WTI Oil at 74.00’s is far to high. Lower would strengthen the case for lower Inflation, higher GDP and a possible Fed Rate cut. WTI’s 5 year average is located at 67.07.
The FED’s dilemma is Economics is off kilter to market prices as Powell is now paying the price to raise interest rates to high and to quick. Powell is market price dependent as much as Economics. Does Powell sacrifice the DXY exchange rate for lower Oil.
DXY vs WTI 2024
DXY 107.11 Vs WTI 69.25.
DXY 108.69 Vs WTI 67.67.
DXY 111.84 Vs WTI 64.52.
DXY 119.73 Vs WTI 56.63.
DXY 107.00’s translates to EUR/USD 1.0300’s and 102.00’s easily.
DXY’s trouble next week is the same old DXY story as supports build against a significant move lower. Immediate supports are located at 104.27, 103.75, 103.68, 103.64, 103.45.
Next week
EUR/USD Vs DXY Next week.
EUR/USD 1.0826 Vs DXY 103.64,
EUR/USD 1.0845 Vs 103.44.
EUR/USD 1.0883 Vs DXY 103.06.
EUR/USD Vs DXY next week trades another 100 pips.
Next week
Know correct moving averages for entries, targets and profits as demonstrated over the past 15 and 20 years. Nothing else on this planet is required.
EUR/USD trades deeply oversold at any price in the middle to low 1.0700’s. Big break at 1.0836 targets 1.0874.
GBP/USD Overbought begins at low 1.2700’s. AUD/USD trades deep oversold and must break 0.6568 to target 0.6600’s.
USD/JPY overbought targets next week easily 147.69 then 147.46.
NZD/USD longs and shorts are located at 0.6101.
GBP/JPY targets 186.68 while EUR/JPY targets 159.86. Lower must break 159.25.