Economists at ABN Amro expect the EUR/USD pair to hover around the 1.1000 level.
For this year, we expect expectations for Fed/ECB policy to continue to drive the direction in EUR/USD.
The market expects both the Fed and the ECB to start its easing cycle in April/May and rates to be reduced to 4% for the Fed and 2.5% for the ECB by the end of 2024.
We expect the easing cycles to start later, in June, and the Fed to arrive at 4.25% and the ECB at 2.75% at the end of the year. So, both for the Fed and the ECB we are somewhat less dovish than the market and the difference with the market is roughly the same. Therefore, we expect EUR/USD to stay around 1.1000 for the time being.
