- EUR/USD recovered from dip into 1.0700, but bullish momentum remains thin.
- Pan-European GDP figures barely met already-low expectations.
- An appearance from ECB President Lagarde and US Retail Sales in the pipe.
EUR/USD found thin footing to stage a rebound from a decline into 1.0700, but the high side is looking far away as the pair remains challenged by bearish flows as the US Dollar (USD) finds broad-market support after US inflation figures on Wednesday spooked market sentiment.
European Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures met expectations, but a lopsided pan-European economy suffering from lagging growth saw the bar set very close to the floor with investors forecasting a flat growth print.
- European GDP printed at 0.0% for the fourth quarter, as expected.
- Annualized quarterly euro area GDP showed slim 0.1% growth for the year through the fourth quarter.
- European Industrial Production showed a healthy uptick to 2.6% in December, well above the forecast -0.2% versus the previous month’s 0.4% (revised from -0.3%).
- Euro (EUR) traders will be keeping an eye out for European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s appearance slated for early Thursday.
- ECB President Lagarde will be testifying before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in Brussels at 08:00 am GMT Thursday.
- US Retail Sales figures are also due Thursday.
- US Retail Sales in January are expected to decline in January, coming in at -0.1% versus the previous month’s 0.6%.
Euro price today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Pound Sterling.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -0.17% | 0.23% | -0.17% | -0.62% | -0.11% | -0.50% | -0.22% | |
| EUR | 0.18% | 0.40% | 0.01% | -0.44% | 0.04% | -0.31% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.23% | -0.41% | -0.39% | -0.84% | -0.34% | -0.73% | -0.44% | |
| CAD | 0.17% | -0.01% | 0.39% | -0.44% | 0.05% | -0.33% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.60% | 0.44% | 0.83% | 0.44% | 0.48% | 0.12% | 0.39% | |
| JPY | 0.12% | -0.07% | 0.33% | -0.04% | -0.51% | -0.39% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | 0.50% | 0.32% | 0.72% | 0.33% | -0.11% | 0.31% | 0.28% | |
| CHF | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.43% | 0.06% | -0.40% | 0.09% | -0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD sagged into 1.0700 early Wednesday following Tuesday’s US inflation-fueled tumble, and a near-term recovery sees the pair hampered on the bearish side of the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.0760.
EUR/USD is on pace for a fourth straight week of decline, and a bearish Friday close will have the pair close lower for five of the last six consecutive trading weeks. The pair is down around 3.7% from December’s peak bids near 1.1140, and bearish momentum continues to drag the pair further down from the 200-day SMA near 1.0830.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
