British MP Tom Tugendhat on China, Afghanistan and the Taliban

Taliban fighters in a vehicle patrol the streets of Kabul on August 23, 2021 as in the capital, the Taliban have enforced some sense of calm in a city long marred by violent crime, with their armed forces patrolling the streets and manning checkpoints.

Wakil Kohsar | AFP | Getty Images

China will likely engage with the Taliban to achieve two crucial goals — set up an economic corridor with Afghanistan and ensure stability in its neighborhood, according to Tom Tugendhat, a British Member of Parliament.

“I’m sure Beijing will be looking to open up an economic corridor in a similar way they tried to do in Pakistan,” Tugendhat, leader of the U.K. government’s China Research Group and chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, told CNBC’s Sri Jegarajah.

“But, the reality is, that they are seeking to secure their ‘near abroad’ as the old Soviets would have put it,” said Tugendhat, who is an MP for the U.K.’s ruling Conservative Party.

The term “near abroad” was reportedly coined by Russia following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. It was used to refer to a group of independent ex-Soviet states near Russia.

Analysts at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group echoed similar sentiments about Beijing’s goal of maintaining regional security.

“Beyond the immediate safety of Chinese people and organizations in Afghanistan, Beijing’s priority is for it to avoid becoming a source of regional instability, which would damage China’s economic and security interests in Central Asia and South Asia,” they said.

Other analysts have said China could also gain economically from aligning itself with the Taliban.

The vacuum left by the U.S. could be an opportunity for Beijing to offer development aid and other forms of support to Afghanistan — while giving China an opening to exploit the country’s vast reserves of rare earth metals, or push forward investment projects such the Belt and Road Initiative.

China treads with caution

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Tugendhat said the challenge Beijing will now face is how to partner with a country “that is extremely difficult to work with, and particularly now, with a regime that doesn’t really even represent itself.” 

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