- AUD/USD holds positive ground near 0.6525, adding 0.16% on the day.
- The US PCE was up 2.5% YoY in February, in line with the market consensus.
- The Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8 in March against 49.1 prior.
The AUD/USD kicks off the new week on a positive note around 0.6525. It’s a holiday in Australia for Easter Monday, and the market is likely to be mute. Investors will keep an eye on the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for fresh impetus, which is expected to improve to 48.4 in March from 47.8 in February.
US inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) rose in line with expectations in February, climbing 2.5% YoY in February. The monthly was slightly below the market consensus, rising 0.4% MoM in the same month. Furthermore, the Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.8% annually and 0.3% monthly, aligning with the estimation. The data suggested a continued trend of inflation, potentially keeping the Federal Reserve (Fed) on hold before it can start lowering interest rates this year. The higher-for-longer US rate narrative is likely to provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) in the near term.
The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that the recent US inflation data was “along the lines of what we would like to see,” and it kept the Fed’s baseline for interest rate cuts this year intact. Fed officials continued to pencil in three rate cuts this year. Investors expect the first rate cuts will come at the June meeting.
On the Aussie front, the encouraging Chinese PMI data might cap the downside of the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). The China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported on Sunday that the monthly NBS Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.8 in March from 49.1 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0 in March from 51.4 in February.
