- AUD/USD climbs after a dip, finding support from a broader USD retreat.
- Fed’s mixed messages on interest rates, with Bostic cautious on cuts and Goolsbee open to three, sway market sentiment.
- US New Home Sales dropped, while the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index dived.
The Aussie Dollar (AUD) recovers against the US Dollar (USD) after hitting a daily low of 0.6509, though broad USD weakness underpins the commodity-linked currency. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6543, up 0.43%.
Market sentiment is downbeat, with Wall Street trading with losses. The US economic calendar has featured Fed speakers led by Atlanta’s Fed President Raphael Bostic, who said he expects just one rate cut this year, adding that cutting rates too soon could be more disruptive. At the same time, his colleague, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, adheres to the majority of the board and expects three cuts, though he said he needs more evidence of inflation “coming down.”
Recently, Fed Governor Lisa Cook echoed Bostic’s comments, saying that cutting too soon increases the risks of inflation becoming entrenched. She added that the Fed’s dual mandate goals are moving toward better balance.
Data-wise, US housing market data was revealed, with New Home Sales for February decreasing -0.3% MoM from 0.664 million to 0.662 million. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index improved from -0.54 to 0.05. According to the Chicago Fed, all four categories that compose the index improved on the month.
Recently, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index plunged further from -11.3 in February to -14.4 in March. Wages and prices increased during the month, while expectations for future manufacturing activity, generally improved.
The AUD/USD pair bounced off last Friday’s lows and is climbing but faces a key resistance level at 0.6551, the confluence of the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMA). Further upside is seen once breached. The next supply zone would be the 100-DMA at 0.6589, ahead of 0.6600. On the other hand, sellers’ failure at 0.6550 would sponsor a leg-down and the pair could re-test the 0.6500 figure.
