Asia Market Update: AU & JP equities fresh record highs; Asia PMI day sees JP at 2020 lows; Dovish BOJ Gov pares yesterday’s JPY gains; Tonight Feb EU Inflation & US ISM PMIs.
– Australia’s ASX 200 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 again hit fresh record highs, with the Nikkei within grasp of the 40,000 level for the first time ever.
– China Official PMI remains in contraction while Caixin PMI remains slightly expansionary.
– Asia PMI day saw most countries continue their respective trends of the past year or two.
– Japan’s PMI stayed in contraction for the 9th month, registering its lowest level since Aug 2020.
– 100 of China’s top real estate developers reported February sales down ~60% y/y.
– Overnight from the G-20, Japan BOJ Gov Ueda’s relatively dovish comments (‘cannot yet see inflation target is met’) undid much of the Yen’s gains from yesterday’s more hawkish comments from BOJ member Takata.
– US equity FUTs up slightly during Asian trading.
– Fri 1st (Fri night) EU Feb Inflation, US ISM Mnfg & Services PMI,
– Mar 1st Fri South Korea.
– ASX 200 opens +0.1% at 7,703.
– Australia Feb Final PMI Manufacturing: 47.8 v 47.7 prelim (confirms move back into contraction).
– Australia Feb CoreLogic House Price Index M/M: 0.6% v 0.4% prior.
– Australia sells A$800M v A$800M indicated in 3.75% May 2034 bonds; Avg Yield: 4.1262% v 4.0135% prior; bid-to-cover 3.64x v 2.99x prior.
– META says it will not enter into new commercial deals for ‘traditional’ news content in Australia, France and Germany – financial press.
– New Zealand Feb CoreLogic House Prices Y/Y: -1.4% v -2.7% prior.
– New Zealand Jan Building Permits M/M: -8.8% v 3.7% prior.
– New Zealand Feb ANZ Consumer Confidence: 94.5 v 93.6 prior.
– RBNZ Gov Orr: Economy is evolving as we anticipated (inline comments) – NZ press.
– RBNZ Dep Gov Hawkesby: Policy is going to stay restrictive for some time yet.
– Hang Seng opens -0.7% at 16,390.
– Shanghai Composite opens flat at 3,013.
– Hong Kong Jan Budget Balance (HKD): 41.4B v 21.8B prior.
– Hong Kong Jan M3 Money Supply Y/Y: -0.7% v +1.9% prior.
– (HK) Macau Feb (COP) Casino Rev 18.5B, +79% y/y (vs +92%e).
– CHINA FEB MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 49.1 V 49.0E (5th month of contraction).
– CHINA FEB CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.9 V 50.7E (4th month of expansion).
– China top 100 developers see Feb Sales -60% y/y – China Real Estate Information Corp (CRIC).
– China President Xi chairs Politburo study session on new energy tech and energy security – Xinhua.
– China MOFCOM: China’s trade faces a complex, severe and uncertain external environment – China press.
– China Politburo: To seek progress in stability; To expand domestic demand and high-level opening up.
– China Finance Ministry (MOF): Jan local government debt refinancing CNY209.1B.
– China MOFCOM: China is willing to promote business environment with US.
– China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.1059 v 7.1036 prior.
– China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY10B in 7-day reverse repos; Net drains CNY237B v injects CNY59B prior.
– Nikkei 225 opens +0.2% at 39,254.
– JAPAN JAN JOBLESS RATE: 2.4% V 2.4%E.
– (JP) Japan Feb Consumer Confidence 39.1 v 38.3e (highest since Dec 2021).
– Japan Feb Final PMI Manufacturing: 47.2 v 47.2 prelim (confirms 9th month of contraction – falls most since Aug 2020).
– BOJ Gov Ueda: Recent [Japan] recession is rebound from strong quarters; need more data to confirm virtuous cycle, cannot yet see inflation target is met – Sao Paulo comments after G-20 meeting.
– Japan Econ Min Saito: Asking smaller companies to seek price hikes in their supply chains – Japanese press.
– Bank of Japan (BOJ) announces Bond purchases for Mar; leaves frequencies and amounts unchanged.
– Japan sells ¥5.8T v ¥5.8T indicated in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: -0.0960% v -0.1120% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.67x v 2.27x prior.
– Kospi closed for holiday.
– South Korea Feb Trade Balance: $4.3B v $2.0Be.
– Taiwan Q4 Preliminary GDP (2nd reading) Y/Y: 4.9% v 5.1%e.
– Indonesia Feb CPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.6%e.
– Philippines Dec Budget Balance (PHP): -401B v -93.3B prior.
– Thailand Central Bank Chief Sethaput: Economic recovery is slow.
– Taiwan Feb PMI Manufacturing: 48.6 v 48.8 prior [21st month of contraction].
– Indonesia Feb PMI Manufacturing: 52.7 v 52.9 prior [29th month of expansion].
– Malaysia Feb PMI Manufacturing: 49.5 v 49.0 prior [17th month of contraction].
– Thailand Feb PMI Manufacturing: 45.3 v 46.7 prior [7th month of contraction].
– Philippines Feb PMI Manufacturing: 51.0 v 50.9 prior [6th month of expansion].
– Vietnam Feb PMI Manufacturing: 50.4 v 50.3 prior [2nd straight expansion].
– India Feb Final PMI Manufacturing: 56.9 v 56.7 prelim (confirms 32nd month of expansion).
– (US) Fed’s Williams (voter): The last year for the economy has been ‘amazing’ – financial press.
– (US) Fed’s Daly (voter in 2024): We have policy in a good place and can cut if needed.
– (US) Fed’s Goolsbee (non-voter for 2024); Even with Jan PCE data showing a month of rebound, should be careful to extrapolate.
– (US) Fed’s Bostic (dove, voter): Inflation came down much faster than I’d expected; Probably appropriate to reduce policy rate in the summer time.
– (US) JAN PCE DEFLATOR M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.4%E (lowest annual pace since Apr 2021); PCE Core Deflator M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.8% v 2.8%e (biggest M/M jump since Apr 2023).
– JAN PERSONAL INCOME: 1.0% V 0.4%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Real Personal Spending (PCE): -0.1% v -0.1%e.
– INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 215K V 210KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.91M V 1.87ME (highest since end-Nov).
– JAN PENDING HOME SALES M/M: -4.9% V 1.5%E; Y/Y: -6.8% V -4.4%E.
– FEB CHICAGO PURCHASE MANAGER’S INDEX (PMI): 44.0 V 48.0E.
– WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: -96 BCF VS. -95 BCF TO -77 BCF INDICATED RANGE.
– Nevada reports Jan casino gaming Rev $1.28B, +0.5% y/y, Las Vegas strip Rev $686.2M, -3.8% y/y.
– CANADA DEC GDP M/M: 0.0% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.1% V 1.6%E.
– Senate Majority Leader Schumer (D-NY): Senate aims to pass short term US funding bill as soon as tonight.
– House Speaker Johnson: Funding bill text to be release this weekend.
– (IE) Ireland Feb PMI Manufacturing: 52.2 v 49.5 prior (returns to expansion).
– G20 ‘Summary’: Likelihood of soft landing for the global economy has increased, with growth showing resilience despite divergences across countries and regions.
– Russia said to be planning to ban gasoline exports from March 1st to Aug 31st; Considers lifting export ban on winter diesel grade from Mar 22nd – press.
– UK Chancellor of the Exchequer (Fin Min) Hunt reportedly debates extending windfall tax on oil and gas profits during Spring budget announcement next week – press.
– GERMANY FEB PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V 2.6%E; CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 2.7% v 2.7%e.
– INDIA Q4 GDP Y/Y: 8.4% V 6.6%E; GVA Y/Y: % v 6.4%e.
– ECB’s Holzmann (Austria, ultrahawk): Serious ECB rate cut discussion unlikely before June.
– Bank of England (BoE) appoints Clare Lombardelli as Dep Gov, effective July 1st 2024 for 5-year term (replaces Broadbent).
– RUSSIA PRES PUTIN: ‘DO THEY NOT UNDERSTAND THERE IS A DANGER OF NUCLEAR CONFLICT?’; Strategic forces are combat ready; Not planning to deploy nuclear weapons in space; Our military has gained colossal combat experience – annual parliament address.
– Nikkei 225 +1.9% ; ASX 200 +0.6% ; Hang Seng +0.2%; Shanghai Composite -0.2%; Kospi closed.
– Equity S&P500 Futures +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.2%, Dax +0.3%; FTSE100 +0.6%.
– EUR 1.0800-1.0822; JPY 149.96-150.47; AUD 0.6494-0.6514; NZD 0.6080-0.6098.
– Gold -0.1% at $2,052/oz; Crude Oil +0.3% at $78.47/brl; Copper -0.1% at $3.8450/lb.
